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Name: Tom Grey
Now a libertarian paternalist - progressive Conservative. I want lots of choices for people, with very responsible oriented defaults. Political, smaller gov't oriented, pro- Christian with tolerance and against changes reducing Christian influence.

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blog posts on immigration at The Truth Laid Bear
Saturday, 30 July 2005
Outrageous David Kennedy Army -- call for Slaves

NYT trash.  David Kennedy's call for a military of temporary slaves is disgusting.

I can't stand it.  Calls the US Army mercenary, and tries to weasel out of making it an insult -- it is, technically, true.

Mention of irrelevant WW II, no mention of Korea, Vietnam, Lebanon, Somalia, Bosnia, Kosovo, or Iraq.

He's either an intellectual coward or a mental midget for not mentioning M. Friedman's rebuttal to the mercenary complaint -- the alternative is slave.  This is so terrible.

Of course, he doesn't mention that Stanford refuses to allow ROTC courses -- all Federal funding for such colleges should be cut!

He doesn't mention that Rwanda showed the alternative to a US human rights footprint -- genocide allowed.  Probably because he was a supporter of Clinton in 1996.

Posted by: TomGrey at 07/30/05 07:27 | link | comments
military

Democracy or Death Squad

There are two kinds of gov't.
Democracy, by votes.
Or by death squads.

All of the "King's gov't" are gov't by death squad; most wars are about which death squad group will be the gov't.

Most death squad gov't isn't so different than Spain under Franco.

As Iraq becomes a democracy, all the dictatorships around them will have people who can see the diference between their own gov't, and a democratic Iraqi gov't.

The next 10 years will be very interesting.  (see neo-neo-con on Muslims against Terrorism)

Posted by: TomGrey at 07/30/05 06:38 | link | comments
democracy

Thursday, 28 July 2005
Free Market and Unemployment

It is silly to the point of irresponsible journalism to talk about jobs, jobs, jobs, without talking about the unemployment rate.

Here are two basic Free Market (no gov't action) vs  Gov't action scenarios, both looking at 100 000 workers growing to 101 000 workers in a 2 year period, with a 6% unemployment rate (6 000 workers looking for jobs).
While the gov't action could be: rice tarrifs; or higher minimum wages; let's say it's support for a factory offering 1000 countable jobs.

2 years after Free Market, 5% unemployment, only 5 000 looking for jobs.  After some 16 000 folk changed jobs in the 2 year period. No credit to any gov't official.

2 years after gov't Factory support (and higher taxes to support gov't action):5.5% unemployment, or 5 500 looking for jobs, only some 15 000 changed jobs, including the 1000 working at the new factory.  Gov't gets the credit for those 1000, even though the performance is WORSE than if the gov't had done nothing.

Even though the Free Market folk can't count and identify exactly who will be winners in their better alternative, the truth shows up in the unemployment rate.

The right number to look at is the total unemployment rate in the economy.  NAFTA was good for America -- compare to the EU!  CAFTA will be, too.

There will be dislocations; there will be individual losers; there will be distribution of benefit issues.  But the economic pie for Central America will be larger, and the US consumers will have lower prices.

By the way, Africa Aid should focus on creating jobs in Africa, in sustainable wealth creating organizations.  Such groups of humans who act peacefully and cooperatively together are called ... companies.  The measure of their sustainability is called ... profit.  (via Marc)

Posted by: TomGrey at 07/28/05 11:21 | link | comments
jobs, aid

Castro and sanctions should go

Marc talks about Castro, and how the left has been slow to condemn the dictator.

Orville Schell has a couple long screeds about Vietnam, and the lies of the gov't that made the press sick of it, and then how he left the "madness".

He's wrong about so much, as I discuss Iraq is Vietnam -- in Press Coverage. http://tomgrey.motime.com/1122535603#477838
(Look at my OldTigger photos to see me and my Slovak wife)

I supported a policy of winning in Vietnam, though didn't quite accept my grandmother's idea of nuking Hanoi. In retrospect, had the USA done that, and achieved peace with a divided Vietnam and NO commie takeover in Cambodia, far fewer lives would have been lost.

The anti-War folk supported a policy of "US OUT NOW" -- implicitly that "anything is better." What they got was genocide. I think SE Asian genocide is worse than 10 more years of war effort/ nation building, and a doubled amount of budget spent; and I think any true humanitarian who cares about poor people should feel similar.

The anti-War folk who refuse responsibility for genocide are terrible. They say if their policy is followed, but bad results follow, the bad results are excused for other reasons (butterfly chaos theory. Bah). The Left mostly excused Stalin and Mao for these reasons, in comparison to the demonization of Hitler.
[Being a non-Jew under Hitler was almost certainly more comfy than living under Stalin in 34-44; or under Mao 1950-60]

Good intentions towards (Unreal) Perfection excuse a hellish reality. Bah. The Left needs more comparisons of realistic alternative results, and look at policies most likely to get better net results.

I support democracy in Iraq; and right now that means military regime change -- and I accept that Bush's military is gonna kill some innocent people, and even torture. I don't like it, I want it to be a goal to be kept small, but winning must remain most important. And if the military blows it, the appropriate commanding officer gets discipline (Gen. Karpinski was fired; she's now Col.)

On Cuba, Castro needs to go; but sanctions prolly need to go, too. The Leftist problem with sanctions is that they want some "country to country" punishment LESS than war. Trade sanctions seem to fit that bill. This is silly. It hurts the normal people, but not the gov't -- and it increases the power of the dictator to blame the problems on America.

Even "most favored nation" trade status shouldn't exist, and the USA should buy from anybody and everybody willing to sell. Any sanctions should be sanctions against the officials (no visas, no conferences, etc.) of the bad gov't, not trade. But the rich and powerful, here and there, don't like sanctions on the rich and powerful.

Posted by: TomGrey at 07/28/05 10:52 | link | comments
democracy, free press

In Press coverage - Iraq is Vietnam

[a pro-press commenter says I'm "Missing a big boat" -- ha!  The Leftist dominated news-boat is sinking.  I won't miss it.]

Orville Schell talks about Vietnam at PressThink
"But, over the years we messed that war up so badly and were so dishonest with ourselves, that by the time I fled its utter and total madness in the late 60s and vowed never to go back, there weren't more than a handful of correspondets of my acquaintance who were feeling hopeful and positive about the future. That end-game was the result of a long process of facts speaking out over all too much US government propaganda."

I think he means first Johnson's generals, than Nixon's, were WRONG about how soon it would it end. They were sometimes wrong about body counts, but not so much.  The generals were TERRIBLY wrong about how long it would take -- but they were RIGHT about how bad the alternative was.

The anti-War folk were WRONG about how "Peace now" would be better.

"too much US gov't propaganda".  Ha!
What WAS that "utter and total madness" in the  "endgame" ?  Genocide

Evil commies winning, and murdering thousands of unarmed civilians, hundreds of thousands, millions.

Where is that word Mr. Schell?  Why can't you admit it: YOU SUPPORTED GENOCIDE.
Isn't that the truth?  Didn't each and every press person who wanted the US to leave support the alternative as better than more war?

Johnson lied about the war, Nixon lied about the war -- and the Press lied about the peace, lied about the BAD alternative.

It was not utter madness: read the N. Viet general's accounts.  After Tet the goal was to win by Public Relations.  What you call madness today was a rational and logical strategy to WIN the war, without winning a battle.  Using the Free Press as its useful idiot ally.

The Press helped the commies win, YOU helped; Jay Rosen and Steve Lovelady helped (? -- you WERE anti-War, right?); Cronkite and Rather helped. Jane Fonda and John Kerry helped the commies win.
 
All provided the Public Relations half-news of Vietnam.  The war as "madness," nothing America can do, yada yada, it's "unwinnable."

Because of the N. Vietnam strategy, Vietnam could not be won by America -- but it could have been won by a S. Vietnam funded, equiped, trained, and supported by America.  With LONG term support, support that required public relations, support that was opposed and defeated by a press that lied about "madness", when it was really supporting commie victory.

In the same way, Iraq can not be won by America -- only by Iraqis.  Only over time, a LONG time. As Bush has quietly said often. [though particular military objectives can be more quickly achieved (and the Bush press position often seems silly.)]

Mr. Schell, you talk about Bush's press and compare it to China.  Where are the Hu=Stalin, or Hu=Hitler op-eds in China?  Where is the uncensored criticism?  What I've read is a) China does NOT allow criticism, and b) Bush and America does allow criticism.  A LOT of criticism.

No parallel there. 

What is a bit new is that Bush is almost ignoring the Leftist press, allowing almost all legitimate criticisms to be drowned out in a cacaphony of hysterical Bush-hate, Bush-lied, Bush=Hitler nonsense that is so loud and ridiculous that most normal folk turn the political news volumne down low.  Real low.

No parallel with the commies.

But when I look at the press coverage of Vietnam, where the LYING, er WRONG press (please, not to mention that genocide word!) advocated US withdrawal, I do find a parallel in press coverage of Iraq

Iraq coverage is almost all anti-Bush, anti-America, anti-hope, almost all the time.  And little discussion of the alternative.  No amount of Nixon lies, illegal bombing, or stupid support of corrupt S. Vietnamese officials justifies support for the genocide alternative.  

Until Bush critics articulate an alternative program of what should be done, now, in Iraq, their criticism is essentially PR for terrorists.

Iraq will have either democracy or gov't by death squad; the kind that the Palestinian Authority sort of has (with Fatah terrorists murdering and being murdered by Hamas death squads). 

The USA put a man on the moon in the 60's -- but did NOT create a stable S. Vietnam.  At some unknown, but very high price in US dollars and US soldier lives, the USA could have succeeded.  The governments were bad about underestimating the costs, repeatedly.  

In Iraq, Bush seems to have learned far more from the Vietnam failure than the press. He's calling for victory, for no timetable and almost no budget ceiling, and letting the Iraqis know it will only be them who create a democratic Iraq, not America.  Plenty of troops for Liberation, not enough for Occupation -- no occupation.

Reasonable debate on how best to help Iraq become democratic is almost totally lost by 'Bush lied about WMDs!' so ... anything is better than what he wants.  Bah!  Implied Unreal Perfection.

The true alternatives: Iraq democracy or death squads.  I support democracy.  The Press coverage I see seems like PR for death squads.

Posted by: TomGrey at 07/28/05 09:26 | link | comments (1)
iraq, vietnam, democracy, hearts and minds, free press

Women are different - BlogHer

Jay promotes BlogHer con, for women bloggers.

Wish I could be there, but left Sili Valli 15 years ago, only back once since.

Women wanting men to compete less is probably a better idea than asking women to compete more, but likely fruitless. 

It reminds me of sexual promiscuity and irresponsibility.  Women had, for generations, wanted men to be more sexually responsible and less promiscuous.  With the pill, then legal abortion, and the push for "equality," and the acceptance of changing selves rather than changing the other -- the result was that college women are pushing to have EQUAL sexual promiscuity and irresponsibility as college men.

I think this is, and has been, a big mistake.  Especially for women!

Parents with both boy children and girl children usually understand: boys and girls LIKE different things.  Just watch a boy take a barbie ... and twist her into a gun shape and start shooting.

Men are also taller than women. -- This added to remind all that such generalizations are about averages, and the more competetive women are more competitive than the less competitive guys (Carly Fiorina?  She might be a good addition.)

Posted by: TomGrey at 07/28/05 09:21 | link | comments (1)

No tolerance of intolerance

Hedgehog notes Perry on Multiculturalism, and Tom Friedman on Hate speech and excuse makers.

All too often, the excuse makers include the media.

Muslim services in foreign languages should be taped, and translated, and publically available. The demand that immigrants be tolerant of the socially allowed and legal behavior is sound.

Tolerance of localized intolerance is the problem.  Also globally, where there is no World Cop like my proposed Human Rights Enforcement Group to stop the intolerance of dictators.

Posted by: TomGrey at 07/28/05 07:45 | link | comments
human rights

Make changes gradually

On Donklephant, Simp's suggestion of more gradual change is good -- all too often reform involves a massive price shock.  I recall bread riots in Africa when price controls were eliminated and bread more than doubled in price (Nigeria?)

The EU wants to eliminate subsidies on sugar beet.  ALL of them, in one shot.

This is stupid.  10% a year for some years, or 1% per month for many months, are much better gradual changes.
MBNA should go 2.5% for 6 months, 3% for 6 months, 3.5% for 6 months, and then be at 4%.  (or go up by .1% each month: 2.1, 2.2....)

The rising interest rates in the US means the big deficit is too big; prolly unemployment is TOO LOW (at about 5%).  But the lack of big headlines about unemployment, since it is so good (too pro-Bush), is prolly why the confidence is low.  Trade deficits don't matter so much; budget deficits do, and interest rates, and employment.  Economy watchers need to keep watching the same important indicators.

Posted by: TomGrey at 07/28/05 07:39 | link | comments
reform

Tuesday, 26 July 2005
Watcher's of Weasels submission

As you may or may not already be aware, members of the Watcher's Council hold a vote every week on what they consider to be the most link-worthy pieces of writing around... per the Watcher's instructions, I am submitting one of my own posts for consideration in the upcoming nominations process.
Here is the most recent winning council post, here is the most recent winning non-council post, here is the list of results for the latest vote, and here is the initial posting of all the nominees that were voted on.

My post is "Unwinnable is the Leftist error"

There is also an opening on the Watcher's Council.

Posted by: TomGrey at 07/26/05 23:35 | link | comments

More Highlights

AW at Freespeech has a nice Suspected Bombers Will Still be Shot in the Head.  Because in the chest is where they have explosives, and the desire is not to detonate. 

Do NOT run away from the police.  Not anymore.

Roger links to Oriana The Enemy we Treat as Friend:

 I've been saying it for four years--that I fight against the Monster that has decided to eliminate us physically and, along with our bodies, to destroy our principles and values. Our civilization. For four years I've been talking about Islamic Nazism; about the war against the West; about the death cult; about European suicide. About a Europe that is no longer Europe, but Eurabia, and that with its feebleness, its inertia, its blindness, its servitude to the enemy is digging its own grave.

Mona Eltahawy in WaPo  After London, Tough Questions for Muslims:

Sayed Mohammed Musawi, the head of the World Islamic League in London, insisted "there should be a clear distinction between the suicide bombing of those who are trying to defend themselves from occupiers, which is something different from those who kill civilians, which is a big crime."

Terrorism is ONLY OK against Israel -- that's what the clerics say. (Via Norm and Harry both)

Marcus at Harry's notes a Times article by Gerard Baker:

Above all we should point out that what we are fighting in Iraq is not some brave, popular “insurgency” struggling to free the Arab people from Western and Zionist oppression, but a coalition of some of the most vile individuals who have ever crawled the earth and who happily slaughter Muslim, Christian and Jew alike for their own ends.

That is what we are fighting against in Iraq. If doing that has really increased our vulnerability to attack, it should make us even more determined to prevail.

Norm quotes the PM of Egypt and some statistics on who was murdered in Egypt:

 The Sharm hospital official, Abdel Fattah, said 43 foreigners were wounded, including 13 Italians, nine Britons, five Austrians, five Germans, four Spaniards, a Czech, an Israeli Arab, two Saudis, two Kuwaitis and a Qatari national.

He's also got a Drive Out the Trash UN evaluation of Mugabe in Zimbabwe:

 The UN's 98-page report concluded that 2.4 million people had been affected, of whom 700,000 had lost their homes or livelihoods or both, in a humanitarian crisis of "immense proportions"

Mugabe needs to be faced with regime change.

 

Posted by: TomGrey at 07/26/05 09:32 | link | comments

Monday, 25 July 2005
ME NATO -- Human Rights Enforcement Group better

Does the ME need a NATO type group of democracies? (Michael asks)
The problem that the anti-ME NATO folk seem to be missing is that democracy stabilizes over time, given reasonable economics.
 
The fear seems to be that a group of Democratic Arab (= anti-Israel? prolly yes) states democratically decide to fight Israel. 
 
I think this fear is only barely reasonable, and only for the first couple of election cycles.  But in both Lebanon and Iraq, the internal Sunni-Shia / Kurd-Arab (-Turkic) minority/ majority issues will  likely be stronger.
 
"Let's spend gov't money to build army to attack Israel!"  vs "Let's spend gov't money to help OUR people" -- I'm pretty sure butter wins over guns in actual votes; with the big issue being how much gov't pie THEIR voters will get. 
(Not so dissimilar to older democracies.)
 
But not with a depression or a hyperinflation.

Posted by: TomGrey at 07/25/05 19:36 | link | comments (1)

The good Knight Nix, who was also bad

There once was a strong knight name Nix, whose village had sent him to fight an evil dragon across the sea, a dragon threatening to destroy a village and all around it.  But the dragon was a hydra, and when Nix chopped off a head, another one grew.  For years and years Nix chopped of heads; going out, chopping a head, going back to the village at night, and finding another in the morning.  Like knight Lyn before him, he kept sending messages home that he was sure the dragon/ hydra was about to die, so his village DID need to send him food.  The village of Nix was beginning to wonder if he really wanted to kill the dragon, or if he could kill it, or even if it could be killed.
 
Nix found, as his predecessor Lyn had, that some of the local villagers were actually feeding the dragon -- sometimes because the dragon threatened them with specific death if they didn't -- and the villagers were terrified.  Sometimes Nix would even kill villagers feeding the dragon; even women and children.  At least once Nix had even raped a villager, M'la, and there were rumors of more rapes.  Nix was ordered to come home, and even leave the dragon alone.
 
The dragon ate half the men and a quarter of the women after Nix left.  But many say the village of Nix was good to call Nix home.  The dragon didn't eat them.

Posted by: TomGrey at 07/25/05 19:26 | link | comments

Need for standards and enforcement

Michael is trying to keep his comments clean by banning sewer-troll apologists for Genocide.
 
One of the larger ethnic cleansings in Europe occurred as the Czechs drove out the Sudetenland Germans -- the Slovaks were NOT allowed to drive out the Southern Slovak Hungarians. Today there are few Germans in the Czech Republic, but there are many Hungarian-Slovaks (maybe 10%? 500 000, many Roma call themselves Hungarian though).
 
The pro-German Croatian fascists did commit WW II atrocities against the Serbs, only 65 years ago -- lots of Serbs lived with family member survivors. What is justice?  What is justice, today, for those whose recent ancestors were wrongly harmed by the ancestors of their non-assimilated neighbors?
 
See that Czechs are making a few tiny steps.
 
My own arbitrary justice system: attempt to fix a 100% monetary justice award.  Reduce this amount by 1% per year, to Zero after 100 years. 
 
The Hungarian killing of Slovak language speaking priests in 1916 would still be eligible for some cash.  Slave reparations from 1865 are 40 years too late.  Jim Crow law reparations might not be.
 
The Serbs deserve some justice; AT LEAST honest acknowledgement of them being wronged in WW II.  This doesn't justify their atrocities, but it's important for understanding.  Jim R "can't understand it." 
 
I can -- the thirst for justice is very often blood-thirsty.  [Mild, but real, Jewish racism, non-assimilation, and relative success created an environment ripe for demonization -- many current Bush-Haters would undoubtedly have been Jew-haters in Europe pre-WW II.]
 
"Justice" is actually a reaction to an "initial INjustice".   While it's often easy to agree on the existence of an injustice, and be against it, agreeing on the right justice is usually MUCH harder.  And often, one person's justice is another person's injustice.
 
 
 
My "Justice is a grey area, after an initial INjustice" comment is on the MJT mass murder  thread.  Most atrocities have a "justice" component.
 
A justice system requires a standard of behavior the violation of which is the INjustice; a judge to decide if/ how much of a violation there is; and a method to stop/ punish/ require restitution from the guilty, enforcement.
 
The world needs a Human Rights Enforcement Group "world cop". 
Funny how on his site Michael has to set the standard, decide on violations, and execute the banning punishment.
Just like the real world.
 
[Good work!]

Posted by: TomGrey at 07/25/05 19:14 | link | comments
human rights, genocide, justice, world cop

Unwinnable is the Leftist error

Making a difference.
I want to do that.  I want journalists who want to do that, too.  But I want journos to be honest about what difference they want to make; and what differences they do make.
 
HUGE DISHONESTY In Jay's Schell post -- talk about Nixon, no talk about Vietnam.  The press hated Nixon; the press wanted the US out of SE Asia.  The press got rid of Nixon, got the US out.
The world got Pres. Ford (stumbling off of planes); and SE Asia got genocide.
 
 
I hate Nixon for so many reasons (lying about bombing Cambodia, for instance) -- but his 1972 wanting to win in Vietnam is not one of them.  Like in the case of Bush today, what is the Big Deal about being anti-Nixon?  He leaves office in disgrace some umpteen months early.  Beeeg Deal.  He was gonna be gone after 76 anyway.  Big "make a difference" deal.
 
What about the US out of Vietnam? 
THERE is a real difference -- like between S. Korea 15 years ago and Vietnam today.  Like the difference between 3 million mostly non-resisting unarmed civilians being murdered and the US supporting a Pinochet or Park Chung Hee dictator who could command a S. Vietnamese army able to fight off the N. Vietnamese.
Winning the fight against commies -- or the US losing.
The press was in favor of Nixon losing, of the US losing.
The US media gave the world the Killing Fields -- that's the Big Deal that All the President's Men covers up.
 
Jay thinks: "one of the oldest assumptions about journalism—namely, if the story can be told, something will happen for the better—is slowly being rendered inoperable."  Sorry Jay, do you really think SE Asia genocide was for the better?
 
Of course you don't -- so you lie to yourself that it wasn't the media.  It was Nixon's bombing.  It was Kissinger's Paris talks. Yada yada excuse.
Press policy prescription: US out.
Policy followed.
Result, genocide.
 
Why can't media accept their responsibility?  They have the same blame/credit as for booting Nixon.
 
 
But great, important issue of Myth has been raised: "Are we as citizens not entitled to take some heart in a few inspiring stories of valorous deeds just like all those who have gone before us who believed in good kings, kind monks, patriotic warriors or dedicated political figures?"
 
Indeed we ARE, and DO take hear: Lord of the Rings; Star Wars; Harry Potter (just finished #6 9 hours after midnight; Islamofascists are Death Eaters).
 
But there is Myth Missing. Where is the  Good Strong King against weak bad guys ? 
 
We have good weak kings, and strong not so good kings, but when there's a "good, strong" king, there's not supposed to be any more bad guys.
Kind of implies that the existence of bad guys means the king's not so good -- especially if it's clear he's very, very strong.
Steve's comment (at PressThink)  "So you can't find out what the hell is really going on when you tune into the national outlets ..."
 
Like the 800 or so murdered folk in Thailand, as Muslim terrorists are establishing a Fear society, ruled by death squads. Nearly censored by CNN, BBC, etc -- because there's no Bush-bashing angle.
Like the recent draft Iraqi Constitution articles: why isn't the news talking about THEM?  (if it doesn't bash Bush it's not news.)
 
US unemployment so low?  US growth so high?  US productivity increases?  So many in the world still wanting to go to the US?  (not news because...)

What if the BEST case for Iraq is US military presence and support for the next 6 years?  Does that mean Iraq is "unwinnable"?  -- yes, if the media-influenced politicians demand a schedule of the US leaving before that (unknown) date.
 
What the Dems are calling for today, in Iraq, is why the past mistakes of Vietnam are so relevant.
[Neither] "Johnson nor Nixon ever made a concerted effort to present a convincing argument to the American people why it was important to spend our treasure and blood in Vietnam. McNamara micromanaged the war long after he realized it was unwinnable."
 
Vietnam was winnable -- but far more costly in TIME, especially, than Johnson or Nixon was willing to publicly state. 
Only a military idiot would say an unbeaten, and unbeatable, military force is incapable of winning. 
It might have taken a nuke of Hanoi, or mining Haiphong harbor.  (Winning may be too costly politically is different than unwinnable.)
 
It might take, after Tet in 68, another 21 years of occupation/ support for corrupt, boot-licking S. Vietnamese neo-democrat neo-dictators.  68+21=89 ... when the Berlin Wall came down; with US soldiers still in Germany after 1945 WW II occupation.
 
I think greater local autonomy, and more S. Vietnamese in planes bombing N. Vietnam, would have allowed a 3-8 year transition to 95% S. Vietnamese soldiers using US supplied equipment to fight the commies, and keep winnning the battles -- but nobody knows what would really have worked. 
 
The Leftist claim is that not knowing in advance what will really work, and how long it will take, is the same as the war being unwinnable. 
 
This idea is terrible. This idea creates defeat.
 
The USA was not prepared for a 30 years war, nor a 100 years war -- but the Cold War was a 45 year war. 
Go back and read Bush about the War on Terror.  We  are in for a long struggle.  I think the fastest way to win is to create functioning democracies, with Free Press and Free Religion, in every country; and our own national defense demands it among those countries that export oil.
 
[What is "really going on" might also be code words for "what the future will be."  And it's always true that no amount of news today brings accurate knowledge of the future.  Opinions are all just infotainment.]

Posted by: TomGrey at 07/25/05 18:28 | link | comments (1)
iraq, vietnam, democracy, wot , troop withdrawal

Catching up on the Weekend

Mark Steyn on being Mugged by reality? and the multi-cultis:

 That's the great thing about multiculturalism: it doesn't involve knowing anything about other cultures - like, say, the capital of Bhutan or the principal exports of Malaysia, the sort of stuff the old imperialist wallahs used to be well up on. Instead, it just involves feeling warm and fluffy, making bliss out of ignorance.

Antimedia (Media Lies) disses Atrios on not second guessing the cops wrongly killing the Brazillian, but then saying the issue is the "shoot first, ask questions later" cheerleaders.   I wish Anti-M would have included the fact that the suspect was running away.  Running away from the police is a crime.  Maybe it makes sense in Brazil; maybe it used to make sense in the UK.  It is a crime -- Jean Charles was guilty.  It's not a crime that should come with a death sentence -- but he's not innocent.

Stephen (Vodkapundit) gets it right.  Run from the police and you're guilty.  He notes the NYT spin against fighting terrorists.  He links to Reuel Marc Gerecht on Europe's homegrown Islamists.

Samizdata is Looking for a Muslim Martin Luther -- that's what Islam needs.

Kate (Outside the Beltway) has a letter from Thailand:  "in Thailand over 800 people have been killed this year in the southern provinces next to Malaysia, " -- and the BBC, and media, are silent.

And CafeContra selling coffee is great! (via Glenn)

Posted by: TomGrey at 07/25/05 17:05 | link | comments
hearts and minds, moral hazard

Harry is NOT a horcrux

He was supposed to be murdered by Voldemort.  The OBJECT which Voldemort might well have been planning to use may well be left in Godric's Hollow.

If Voldemort used Nagini as the 6th, he has no need for the object.  But it won't be Harry -- but Harry might well find it. 

And what Harry will find among his folks' belongings might include a note to Lily from Severus -- who might have helped her do so well at Potions.

Posted by: TomGrey at 07/25/05 11:04 | link | comments

Saturday, 23 July 2005
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince - Snape

Here are my initial predictions/ thoughts about the book before and after:

Who dies? 
A Weasley.  Charlie? Bill? Arthur?
[Percy will get worse; possibly will report rule breaking to help kill sibling]
Dumbledore? (perhaps at the end; prolly not until 7; possibly just injured)
Moody? 
McGonagal?
Viktor Krum? – makes Ron and Hermione easier in 7. [No Krum, Fleur and Bill towards marriage]
 
Harry gets a little interested in some other girl, not Ccho.  Maybe even Ginny, a bit – or a friend of hers?
[Harry's internal monster.  I think she'll join the trio in #7]
 
Snape will save Harry’s life?  Or vice versa.  Perhaps instead of Dumbledore. [Not yet]
 
The Death Eaters will escape Min. Magic / Azkaban. [Nope]
 
Neville gets new wand, more confidence; he might become mean.  He might die. [Nope, prolly remains very lessor]
 
Neville and Luna would be good together, but JKR has said no. [Both miss the DA]
 
Fred & George’s joke shop will have a fake wand be important at some point; though perhaps some other joke.
[Love potions that work; Egyptian darkness]
 
The Half-Blood Prince is a new character. [NOPE, VERY wrong.] Justin FF is important in some other way.
(Or maybe it could be Krum?) [no, no]
 
There will be reason to explore the chamber of secrets, more – maybe even a young basilisk?  It is more than just a snake den. [not #6]
 
Umbrage is the death eater of #4.[not #6 -- didn't find the #4 reference, prolly misremembered]
Love is the Mystery and the power Voldemort can’t abide – the drop of blood from Harry means Voldemort has a new weakness.  Dumbledore will tell Harry of the hope and how it might, possibly, be used (or there will be a note/ hint if Dumbledore is dead, out of action) {this prolly for book 7}. [not #6]
 
 
Much more about Snape and James Potter.  The special mirror from Serious will be used, and useful; maybe not with Sirius – does Sirius have it or did he leave it?  I think he has it.  [no, not #6]
 
Harry will get the Black house as godson?  Or it goes to the Malfoys.  If to Harry, Hermione must work on the portrait of the mother; she also needs to work with Neville (and Sprout) to help Neville’s parents?  [Kreacher proves it's Harry's; but they don't go there.  Very good use of Kreacher, and Dobby!]
 
Trelawney will have another prophecy.  Perhaps Firinze will mis- interpret it.  Perhaps somebody OTHER than Harry hears it (Parvatti?  Harry’s new girl interest?) [nope, no.]
 
Harry passes potions, and Snape accepts him as an advanced student – Harry is on his way towards becoming an aurer.
 
Snape does not become dark arts teacher – or maybe he does [40% chance it’s Snape]!  First one for two years (6 AND 7) .  Nearly dies; Harry saves him.  [but just one year.]
 
Severus Snape, the Half-Blood Prince -- the so far most interesting character in easy epic fantasy.  He Hates Harry, and Harry's father.  Prolly Hates Voldemort (but doesn't show it.)  Prolly loved Dumbledore -- and Lily, Harry's mother.
 
Snape could be just evil, and have lied to Dumbledore.  Like what Harry thinks.  Of there is something more.  JKR can easily choose near the end of #7; she almost certainly has already decided how he turns out (by turning on the Dark Lord?).

Posted by: TomGrey at 07/23/05 08:47 | link | comments
harry potter

Thursday, 21 July 2005
Leaving the Dark side for the Right

Donklephant’s nice Left Behind post slides into my critique of Abu critics.
 
Justin, let me challenge you -- where are YOUR criticisms of the US handling of non-Gen. Conv. covered terrorists (not in uniform)?  What imperfections in the US treatment do you consider tolerable?
 
Can you name any other prison system where Muslims get better treatment?  (link, please)
 
The US pres. apologized, the SC said combatant distinction was untenable -- what position do you think I support, or not?
 
I support detention for suspects; I support firm -- not torturous -- interrogation, especially sleep deprivation and constant video surveillance.  I think most are guilty, without enough proof "beyond reasonable doubt" to convict them.  Every justice system has two errors:
innocents wrongly held/ punished; guilty wrongly set free.
 
The mistake of holding innocents is reduced when their main punishment is merely segregation.  I think Gitmo is the most humane prison system that has more than 100 Islamic prisoners, but I'm pretty ignorant on this -- yet I do notice comparisons with other prisons is NOT a big media interest.
 
I've <a href="http://tomgrey.motime.com/1105155539#398941">posted</a>  on this before.  And I notice the critics, like Totten, are usually unwilling to say what imperfections they accept.  If you can't own up to the REAL errors of your chosen balance, you're advocating Unreal Perfection.
 
Callimachus has a second, too.
I like your last line better here, too:
<i>"I’ve always said that it will be 20 years before we can even begin to say whether toppling Saddam and trying to set up a democratic Iraq was a good idea."</i>
 
It is FAR too early to judge the results of Iraq; but of course this <b>totally contradicts</b> your criticism of Bush:
<i>"an astonishingly inept and high-handed presidential administration,".</i>
 
On the economy, with low inflation, low unemployment -- but high GDP growth, high home ownership:  <b>amazing success. </b> After the Clinton dot.com bubble pop (NOT Clinton's fault).  Great Tax Cuts to save America from a depression after such a burst -- look at Japan still struggling 15 years after their property bust in 1989.  Look at wimpy EU growth.
 
On terrorism; yep, jury out.  Only an Unreal Perfection criteria could say inept -- no big terror attacks in the US since 9/11.
 
On Iraq, still far less than 2500 Americans killed in creating an Iraq democracy.  Which has to be done mostly by the Iraqis.
 
On Press relations and Media, Bush is maybe weak -- but if the Leftist Bush-hating press will take every opportunity to twist any Rep statement to fit their pre-conceived notion that all Reps are evil, how could it be otherwise?
 
I've elsewhere stated LOTS of mistakes I think Bush is doing.  But "inept" most correctly describes Bush critics.  What's the standard, what's the performance?  That's what a good criticism should have.
 
E.g.: no more than 200 Americans should have been killed in the US invasion, since Saddam was such a wimp.  Therefore, almost 2000 killed is inept.
 
This is the form of a good criticism -- and clearly requires one to agree with the 200 max death standard.  Which I don't.  Bush critics are incredibly incoherent about any standard of comparison -- but are all unanimous about Bush being bah, bah, bahhhh, bad.
 
 
 
OK, on overturning Roe, privatizing Social Security, getting school vouchers (so Christian schools are equal in funding to anti-Christian gov't schools), on reducing gov't spending -- Bush has been lousy for any real conservative.  Maybe inept?  Somehow I don't think this is what you meant.

Posted by: TomGrey at 07/21/05 17:23 | link | comments (2)
hearts and minds, leftist

Priests on Boards of Directors -- and as auditors

Ideoblog has a note on the Uncorporation  Symposium, for business organizations NOT corporations. 
 
I have recently argued that Priests and Ministers should be looking to sit in as Directors on Boards -- and also to be willing to work in auditing.
 
I think the Truth about God has some relationship to the Truth according to best accounting standards, or IFRS, or both.
 
Only a little more than whimsy, though.  So far.
 
I'm also interested in a Full Employment business organization, whose goal is to maximize employment, rather than profit.  Also related to religious folk. 
 
Prolly would be an uncorporation.

Posted by: TomGrey at 07/21/05 16:32 | link | comments (3)

Nature Conservancy and Gas Tax

Larry Ribstein also has a fine note on the Nature Conservancy.
Thanks for a nice reminder of one of the early peaceful (i.e. non-governmental) environmental agencies.
 
I wish there was more discussion of a gas tax/ carbon tax -- with the idea that it become some 10% of the national gov't tax revenue.  A focus on % of revenue collected is better than on emission control.  Bush should start out with 10% of the national Federal Revenue to be collected in Federal Gas Taxes and Carbon Taxes -- to continually increase until it is some 50%, or until technology makes a big pollution reduction.

Posted by: TomGrey at 07/21/05 16:31 | link | comments
gas tax